Trump Tariffs & Trade Wars
(4 min read)

Following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ global tariff announcement, another layer of complexity has been added not seen since the 1930s. Markets, at the time of writing, have reacted badly to the prospect of a prolonged trade war.

The Importance of Diversification
(4 min read)

The start of 2025 has been testing as investors try to digest the news flow, dominated by politics, and what it all means for the global economy and markets. One comment doing the rounds again is that we should take President Trump seriously but not literally.

Gold Bubble or Sign of the Times? (4 min read)

The price of gold has recently appreciated dramatically, breaking through its all-time high in 2024 and pushing nearly 50% higher still in 2024 to approximately $2,900 per ounce at the time of writing. The question is where the price goes from here following such a performance.

Once Again, Beware the Headlines (4 min read)

Over the last few weeks, the UK media has been on the attack over the sustainability of Rachel Reeve’s fiscal policy. The c£10bn wiggle room the chancellor left in her October budget has all but evaporated and to balance the books she needs either to cut public spending or increase taxation.

2024 Year in Review (3 min read)

The headlines during 2024 have been dramatic at times and full of surprises. Markets have had to deal with a range of geopolitical events including continued wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, elections in the US and the UK, and a budget here at home that impacted most areas of the private sector.

India: a new theme for client portfolios (2 min read)

India has seen an encouraging shift in its economic and structural backdrop in recent years. Rising exports, strong earnings growth and increasing urbanisation have all contributed towards an exciting opportunity to invest in this emerging market.

President-elect Trump 2.0 (3 min read)

Last week the US went to the polls. Donald Trump caught the mainstream media by surprise with his ‘clean sweep’ election victory by taking control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives by a convincing margin.

What are the investment implications of a second Trump term?

The £40bn tax raise (2 min read)

After four months of an information vacuum, which had been filled with all sorts of speculation, surrounding the new government’s economic policy – the UK stock market has flat lined during this period – Rachel Reeves delivered her tax and spend plans in today’s budget.

Inflation Progress (2 min read)

UK inflation has dropped below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in three years. With the 30^th October Autumn Budget barely a fortnight away, the US election getting ever nearer and Middle East tensions hanging in the balance, could hikes in food and energy prices mean the headlines are short-lived?

The Long Way Down (3 min read)

The Fed cuts rates by ½% and the Chinese central bank eases monetary policy while we wait to see if the ECB will continue to cut interest rates next month. The only potential laggard in this global monetary easing cycle could be the Bank of England which will need to digest the economic implications of the much-anticipated 30th October budget when...

The Prime Minister's Rose Garden Speech (3 min read)

Sir Keir Starmer delivered a gloomy economic outlook in his speech this week. This came across as being rather political. There is significant uncertainty around the new government’s fiscal/tax and spend regime and we will not get a firm handle on this until the 30th October budget and, until then, media speculation will...

The Yen Carry Trade Causes Market Volatility (4 min read)

July and August are very often volatile months for markets and exaggerated by the lack of liquidity during the holiday season. Short term market traders would often say “sell in May and go away, come back on St Legers day.” Over the last few months markets have experienced some not unusual gyrations with global equities…

Post-Covid markets in the context of the last two decades.

As policy makers now deal with an inflationary environment after years of fighting deflation, higher interest rates will lead to a different market backdrop.