Trump Tariffs & Trade Wars
(4 min read)

Following President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ global tariff announcement, another layer of complexity has been added not seen since the 1930s. Markets, at the time of writing, have reacted badly to the prospect of a prolonged trade war.

The Importance of Diversification
(4 min read)

The start of 2025 has been testing as investors try to digest the news flow, dominated by politics, and what it all means for the global economy and markets. One comment doing the rounds again is that we should take President Trump seriously but not literally.

Gold Bubble or Sign of the Times? (4 min read)

The price of gold has recently appreciated dramatically, breaking through its all-time high in 2024 and pushing nearly 50% higher still in 2024 to approximately $2,900 per ounce at the time of writing. The question is where the price goes from here following such a performance.

Once Again, Beware the Headlines (4 min read)

Over the last few weeks, the UK media has been on the attack over the sustainability of Rachel Reeve’s fiscal policy. The c£10bn wiggle room the chancellor left in her October budget has all but evaporated and to balance the books she needs either to cut public spending or increase taxation.

2024 Year in Review (3 min read)

The headlines during 2024 have been dramatic at times and full of surprises. Markets have had to deal with a range of geopolitical events including continued wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, elections in the US and the UK, and a budget here at home that impacted most areas of the private sector.

India: a new theme for client portfolios (2 min read)

India has seen an encouraging shift in its economic and structural backdrop in recent years. Rising exports, strong earnings growth and increasing urbanisation have all contributed towards an exciting opportunity to invest in this emerging market.

President-elect Trump 2.0 (3 min read)

Last week the US went to the polls. Donald Trump caught the mainstream media by surprise with his ‘clean sweep’ election victory by taking control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives by a convincing margin.

What are the investment implications of a second Trump term?

The £40bn tax raise (2 min read)

After four months of an information vacuum, which had been filled with all sorts of speculation, surrounding the new government’s economic policy – the UK stock market has flat lined during this period – Rachel Reeves delivered her tax and spend plans in today’s budget.

Inflation Progress (2 min read)

UK inflation has dropped below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in three years. With the 30^th October Autumn Budget barely a fortnight away, the US election getting ever nearer and Middle East tensions hanging in the balance, could hikes in food and energy prices mean the headlines are short-lived?

The Long Way Down (3 min read)

The Fed cuts rates by ½% and the Chinese central bank eases monetary policy while we wait to see if the ECB will continue to cut interest rates next month. The only potential laggard in this global monetary easing cycle could be the Bank of England which will need to digest the economic implications of the much-anticipated 30th October budget when...

The Prime Minister's Rose Garden Speech (3 min read)

Sir Keir Starmer delivered a gloomy economic outlook in his speech this week. This came across as being rather political. There is significant uncertainty around the new government’s fiscal/tax and spend regime and we will not get a firm handle on this until the 30th October budget and, until then, media speculation will...

The Yen Carry Trade Causes Market Volatility (4 min read)

July and August are very often volatile months for markets and exaggerated by the lack of liquidity during the holiday season. Short term market traders would often say “sell in May and go away, come back on St Legers day.” Over the last few months markets have experienced some not unusual gyrations with global equities…

UK Election (3 min read)

The General Election here in the UK has come and gone without immediate drama and little volatility in the financial markets; the equity market is broadly unchanged, UK gilt yields have fallen slightly, but that was driven by weaker employment data in the US, and GBP has strengthened but, again, this was more to do with US dollar weakness. The result was very much…

UK Economy Surprises to Upside

Last month, we wrote about the lack of domestic sponsorship for the UK stock market, highlighting the wealth management industry’s departure for global strategies and pension funds having the lowest exposure in percentage terms relative to other G7 countries, which have a significantly higher weighting to their home market. We pointed out…

The end of the road or a great opportunity for UK equities?

Earlier this month, Coutts & Co, the private bank, announced that it would be selling over £2.5 billion worth of UK equities in client portfolios, reducing their weighting from 32% to 3% in the UK domestic stock market. The idea is that investors should take a global view on their…

Stock and Bond Market Correlations.

It might just be that we have entered a healthier period where equities are driven more by the prospect of increased productivity due to themes such as AI and the robustness of the economy than by excess liquidity finding itself into the market, even at elevated valuations. This should make the 60/40 portfolio stance a…

Summer rate cuts expected.

Rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England following monetary policy meetings this week has been softer in tone regarding the fight against inflation and the consequent outlook for interest rates. Markets are discounting…

CGT: Halved and Halved Again

The 6th April 2024 will mark the start of the new 2024/25 tax year and a further reduction in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) allowance from £6,000 down to £3,000.

The once generous rate of £12,300 ended last year and with tax-free CGT allowances ebbing away many investors will be facing a potentially inevitable tax liability for the first time on investment profits.

Don't bank on big interest rate cuts.

Yesterday, 20th February, Andrew Bailey was in front of the Treasury select committee and the headline in the financial media was that the Bank of England does not have to wait for the inflation rate to hit the 2% target before cutting interest rates. In the same breath the Governor said…

Is the year-end rally overdone?

Markets rallied strongly into the year end driven by the prospect of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024. In this article we question the justification for such cuts in rates and the short-term optimism that this has brought to equity markets. Our investment process remains focused on underlying fundamentals.